Maersk Completes its inaugural Red Sea Transit in Two Years
Danish shipping giant Maersk successfully navigated the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait on December 19-20, 2025, marking the company's first transit through the critical waterway in nearly two years. The Maersk Sebarok, a smaller container vessel, completed the test voyage as shipping companies reassess the viability of the Asia-Europe corridor following the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire.Maersk emphasized that the transit represents a cautious first step rather than a full return to Suez routing. The company stated it would adopt a stepwise approach toward gradually resuming navigation via the Suez Canal, with no additional sailings currently planned. Industry analysts note that a broader resumption could significantly impact global shipping capacity and freight rates, which have remained elevated due to the longer Cape routing.
CMA CGM Announces Gradual Return with Limited Transits
French container shipping major CMA CGM has begun limited transits through the Suez Canal, with vessel tracking data indicating movements of the Jacques Saade and Adonis through the waterway. The company has also scheduled its India-US INDAMEX service to route through the Suez Canal starting in January 2026, signaling growing confidence in the security environment.CMA CGM previously stated that Red Sea and Suez transits are assessed individually based on prevailing security conditions. The Suez Canal Authority confirmed its readiness to accommodate mega containerships following the safe transit of CMA CGM JULES VERNE through the Bab El-Mandab Strait, demonstrating the channel's operational capacity for modern vessel classes.
War Risk Premiums Fall Sharply
Marine insurance rates for Red Sea transits have fallen significantly following the October ceasefire, with additional war risk premiums (AWRP) declining to approximately 0.2 percent of hull value by early December 2025, down from 0.5 percent before the ceasefire. According to Marsh brokerage data, this represents the lowest level since November 2023, when Houthi attacks first began in response to the Gaza conflict.The de-escalation reflects a pause in Houthi attacks on merchant vessels and the release of 11 crew and security personnel from the Eternity C, held by the militant group for nearly five months. However, security advisories caution that the situation remains fragile, with average daily transits through Bab al-Mandab standing at 37 vessels in late November, still well below the pre-conflict level of over 70 daily transits.
Industry Conservatively Upbeat Despite Fragile Ceasefire
Shipping industry representatives have begun weighing the risks and benefits of returning to Suez routing. BIMCO's chief security officer Jakob Larsen stated that individual ship managers must establish their own safety criteria for Red Sea transits, noting that the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile and security conditions could change rapidly.Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, projected that broader resumption of Suez Canal transits could result in a 10 percent drop in ship demand, as the alternative Cape routing has created structural demand for additional vessel capacity. Security consultancy Dryad Global's CEO warned that the Red Sea region remains volatile and attacks could occur at any time regardless of public statements from the Houthis.