BIMCO data shows Suez Canal traffic remains nearly 60% below pre crisis levels.
Shipping market analysis released early January 2026 demonstrated that Suez Canal vessel traffic remains drastically decreased compared to pre crisis patterns despite more than three months without Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen estimated transits were still roughly 60% lower than they had been three years prior, when large scale diversions around Cape of Good Hope hadn't yet begun; these figures point towards structural shifts in routing decisions which have yet to reverse even after security threats have subsided.
BIMCO reports that the decrease in Suez Canal deadweight transits began in January 2024 and has become entrenched since. Transit capacity in each quarter from early 2024 through end 2025 was usually 51-64% lower than 2023 levels; container ship transits were reported as having dropped 86% year-over-year during quarter 4 of 2025, underscoring how comprehensively liner operators have avoided Red Sea corridor. Crude/product tanker flows have shown more resilience but are still significantly down on a deadweight basis.
At 100 days since Houthi pirate attacks on Minervagracht in September 2025, Suez Canal usage has not shown significant signs of rebound. Rasmussen states that although security conditions and war risk premiums have improved significantly, many owners and charterers still prefer predictability over more erratic Cape routes; marine insurers reportedly reduced Red Sea war risk premiums to around 0.2 percent of hull value by early December 2025, the lowest level seen since late 2023, but this decline still failed to lead to rapid returns across all vessel classes to Suez Canal.
Carriers' Strategies: Enhancing trans Suez Return through select services
Individual liner operators have recently begun taking steps towards trans Suez routing on selected trades. CMA CGM's MEDEX and INDAMEX services will recommence using the Suez Canal during January 2026; their redeployment as an indicator of carrier risk appetite and customer acceptance will be closely followed.
Maersk has also taken small but symbolic steps forward. On 19 December 2025, Maersk Sebarok became the first vessel since early 2024 to traverse the Suez Canal under controlled trial conditions - operating as part of MECL service on its MECL route - since early 2024, as part of an experimental approach. Maersk described this voyage on their MECL service as significant step forward but stressed that any return to Red Sea routes remains subject to safe and sustainable conditions as planned by them and customer dialogue is ongoing for transition back across.
Industry analysts caution that mainline carriers returning to the Red Sea is more than simply reversing diversions seen between 2024-2025. The Cape of Good Hope route imposed longer transit times, higher fuel consumption costs and costs but it also took away part of global vessel capacity - BIMCO estimates a full normalisation of Suez routings could reduce effective container ship demand by 10% as well as two to three percent for other segments - sudden release of this extra capacity could put downward pressure on freight rates while altering charter market dynamics - however owners will need to balance those effects against reduced bunker costs incurred through Suez.
Rapid Suez normalisation poses risks of congestion and inventory disruption, and could increase congestion by as much as 30-50%.
Maersk warns that any major switch back to trans Suez shipping could add significant uncertainty into supply chains already operating at full capacity. Drawing parallels with pandemic era operations constraints being lifted contributed to inventory shockwave and port congestion across major European gateways in late 2021. Its January 2026 market update highlights this risk as Maersk notes the possibility that ships returning via the Suez Canal could arrive simultaneously as sailings routed via Cape may leave Europe, creating an abrupt surge in arrivals at once.
Bunching could force European importers to temporarily stockpile multiple months' inventory quickly. Maersk notes that finished goods inventories for Euro Area countries are already slightly above early 2020 levels and higher than average relative to demand; further unplanned stock build-up may not be desirable at this point in time. Terminal utilization across key European ports has fallen from extreme levels seen early 2023, yet remain close enough to capacity that simultaneous arrival of Suez and Cape routed vessels could put some locations into higher risk congestion zones.
Maersk and other global carriers are taking measures to mitigate risks related to Suez related call volumes by working closely with shippers on scenario planning, encouraging customers to review ordering patterns, adjust delivery windows and consider alternative routes where applicable. Their aim is to ease transition and prevent congestion and equipment dislocation experienced during the pandemic. For port authorities and terminal operators facing an increase in Suez-related calls volumes due to an unexpected spike, coordinated berth planning is even more essential in addition to proactive labour and landside capacity management strategies.
Segment specific impacts and outlook for Suez Canal revenues
BIMCO data suggests that the distribution of Suez Canal downturn across vessel segments has important ramifications for both shipping markets and the Suez Canal Authority. Over 2025, container ships experienced the greatest relative decline followed by bulk carriers and tankers; product tanker flows were down 19 percent year-on-year while crude tanker flows dropped 32 percent year-on-year; product tanker traders could exploit higher freight rate premiums for timely deliveries to make Suez more economically attractive even under high risks.
Suez Canal Authority faces ongoing toll revenue pressure until early 2026 due to a sustained 60 percent reduction in traffic relative to pre crisis levels, placing considerable strain on toll revenues. While they have adjusted tariff structures and rebate schemes accordingly to market conditions, more incentives could be deployed as key vessel segments return. At the same time, management remains attuned to shipper concerns regarding safety, insurance costs, schedule reliability as these may be heavily influenced by factors outside their direct control such as regional security or naval protection measures.
Many experts anticipate any recovery in Suez utilisation will be gradual rather than sudden, given its combination of improved security, lower war risk premiums and targeted carrier redeployments - factors which suggest a gradual reopening of selected trades and services via Suez corridor. However, given the extensive rerouting that has taken place since early 2024 and potential market impacts associated with unlocking additional effective capacity, full reversion to 2023 patterns is unlikely in the near term. For maritime stakeholders, the first quarter of 2026 will be crucial in gauging whether early carrier moves such as CMA CGM service returns and Maersk trial transits are met by wider industry acceptance or remain isolated steps that need more careful adjusting over time.