Recently, the European Commission endorsed Romania's plan for a Black Sea maritime security hub, while security analysts identified it as a high risk area for shipping in 2026. Furthermore, recent drone attacks against Russian port infrastructure highlight their vulnerability - keeping regional operators on their toes.
On 8 and 10 January 2026, the shadow fleet carrying Russian and Venezuelan oil came under increased military and regulatory scrutiny. A Palau flagged tanker linked to Russia was hit by an unmanned surface vessel off Turkiye; U.S. forces also seized two suspected sanctions evasion tankers as separate operations; regional governments as well as NATO partners are currently reviewing risks related to this opaque trade.
From 6-8 January 2026, Ukraine reportedly struck a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker off Turkiye while U.S. authorities advanced criminal proceedings against its crew detained in the Atlantic. These actions demonstrate increasing operational and regulatory risks for sanctions-evading oil transport.
On 3 January, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier detained at Bayuquan Port after failing inspection caught fire nearby and local responders contained it successfully. This incident came as dry bulk freight markets began 2026 on an uninspiring note; analysts noted increased deliveries while remaining cautiously optimistic for 2019.
Over a dozen Western-sanctioned tankers have recently switched their flag to Russia's, seeking protection against U.S. interception and Ukrainian drone attacks. This marks a dramatic transformation of shadow fleet operations: vessels are moving away from open registries towards direct state protection.
Recent Ukrainian naval drone attacks against Russian shadow fleet tankers on route to Novorossiysk has caused severe delays for oil tankers traveling through the Turkish Straits; war risk insurance premiums have tripled - reaching between 0.5-7.75% of vessel value - with the International Maritime Organization strongly advocating mariner protection as military actions worsen commercial shipping disruptions.
Mediterranean Shipping Company implemented several freight rate increases on key routes between Far East, Europe, Africa and beyond since December 2025, taking effect December 1. These updates included service enhancements such as faster transit times on Western Cape Express and new port calls; as well as surcharges due to high demand and regulations. These moves reflect market pressures as well as operational adjustments.
Russian forces recently carried out multiple strikes against Ukrainian Black Sea ports such as Odesa and Pivdennyi, striking multiple strikes against Turkish and Lebanese vessels, causing vegetable oil spills, targeting infrastructure, as well as heightening maritime risks; no confirmed sinkings of warships occurred during that period; these events demonstrate persistent threats to commercial shipping in the region.
Harbour Energy's $3.2 billion purchase of LLOG marks its entrance into U.S. Gulf deepwater assets, while Shell and INEOS Energy announce their first oil discovery in the Gulf of America. CNOOC launches production from its Xijiang 24 wellhead platform while contracts continue flowing to TechnipFMC, Subsea7, and other companies from Mozambique Australia and beyond -- signalling robust offshore momentum amid expanding Caribbean logistics networks.
Maersk and CMA CGM began cautiously resuming Suez Canal transits after almost two years of Cape of Good Hope routing following a fragile Gaza ceasefire agreement reached in October 2025. War risk premiums have fallen significantly while security analysts caution that conditions remain volatile and could change quickly.
Accidents involving at least one vessel colliding and running aground, in the South China Sea, Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea and near Singapore show how the risks of maritime accidents is rising amid tensions and tricky situations in crowded conduits. Warships, oiler and ferries have been involved, leading to death, pollution and delays that provoke calls for better traffic management and vigilance.
Ukraine’s overland shipping route to the Black Sea has hit yet another significant milestone since.162 million tonnes total shipped across 55 countries since August (including 98 million tonnes of grain exported to 55 nations - reported on December 16).at the same time insurance costs for maritime shipping skyrocketed as the growing risk landscape began to shift, as risk premiums for shipping Russian oil out of the region extended until July 2025.
Between December 15 and 17 the EU blacklisted additional operators and businesspeople of Rosneft and Lukoil linked to Russia’s ‘shadow tanker’ fleet, also plans to reinterpret maritime law to ease boarding suspect vessels, protecting subsea infrastructure while targeting these tankers.
Between 13-15 December 2025, the European Union subjected further shadow fleet operators transporting Russian oils to sanctions while Ukraine blacklisted most tankers involved in the sanctions evasion network. The measures raised legal and insurance risk exposure for opaque tanker operators, and underscored the lengths that authorities will go to in pursuit of shadow fleet operators.
In the past week, Ukraine has attacked several Russian-linked tankers with sea drones as Russian strikes hit a Turkish-flagged ship carrying sunflower oil. Incidents with vessels Dashan, Midvolga-2, VIVA and others have led Besiktas Shipping [to] suspend all Russia-bound voyages and push up insurance premiums with Ankara warning of further attacks to come.
From December 11-13, 2025, the United States ramped up its campaign against the global shadow fleet by seizing the tanker Skipper off Venezuela with commando raids, while Ukraine and the EU keep up the pressure against dark shipping associated with Russia. The assaults highlighted deteriorating legal, operational and market conditions for owners looking to protect vessels involved in shadowy oil trades.
Container shipping seemed to enter December in fairly rude health, having started the month with Suez Canal transits being restarted under the leadership of Maersk and CMA CGM, perhaps bringing much-needed stability to the over-heated Asia-Europe lanes, although some short-term volatility might remain. Drewry said its World Container Index rose on December 11 by another 2% to $1957 per 40ft container despite US import volumes continuing to show decline and the completed Houthi attacks in Israel-Jordan suspected by some of relieving some rate pressure; on top of that Black Sea risks and the EU ETS surcharges added even more confusion.
More recently, commercial access to the oceans has been changed by incremental moves by carriers back in the direction of the Suez Canal; continuing security risks offshore in the Red and Black Seas; and an increased naval tempo in the Baltic. Carriers, insurers and regulators are adjusting routing, risk premiums and enforcement to try and find an optimum balance between efficient schedule operation and mitigating geo-political and maritime security risk.
In the last several weeks, U.S. and European regulators moved to tighten enforcement of maritime sanctions on Russian oil exports, blacklisting additional companies, vessels and individuals while regional governments scrubbed each other’s lists. Overall market data showed Russian crude exports reacting negatively to the latest of these measures; an incident involving one of those tankers in the Black Sea underscored how their operational and security risks were rising.
Tanker shipping have recently been operating under intense security pressure and regulatory scrutiny. Bulgaria successfully managed the drift of damaged crude carrier Kairos after drone strike destruction in November; Bangladesh provided repatriation of injured crew. Russia-linked tankers were damaged off Dakar, while Iran released Talara, causing oil trades additional geopolitical risk.