Suez Canal Reopens, Carriers Resuming Strategic Transits
CMA CGM initiated the gradual reactivation of Suez Canal transits after nearly one year of large-scale diversions around Cape of Good Hope. Starting December 9, CMA CGM provided its inaugural weekly FAL1 loop departure from Dunkerque in northern France; this addition should enhance schedule reliability for cargo heading eastbound towards Asia; by routing eastbound sailings through Suez, transit times could decrease from 40-45 days via Cape of Good Hope to approximately 28-32 days, effectively increasing capacity by an estimated 25-30% on that leg of journey.
Maersk confirmed its plans to restore Asia-Europe routing via the Suez in early December in partnership with the Suez Canal Authority; however, security conditions must first materially improve before full resumption can take place. Westbound INDAMEX services will gradually return via the canal starting January 14 2026 as phased return reflects carrier caution over ongoing regional security concerns; insurance normalization should foster wider industry participation over time.
Trans-Pacific Rates Come Under Pressure
Spot rates on Asia to North America routes remained under significant pressure through December, with both US West Coast and East Coast lanes approaching their lowest levels since 2025. Carriers maintained robust capacity despite weak demand; with fewer blank sailings than is typically seen during winter season deployments; unlike typical cuts of 15-20% during this season in order to match seasonal patterns of demand.
U.S.-China tariff agreement reached November 10, 2025--establishing a one-year suspension on vessel and port-related taxes as well as a 10% decrease in International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs--offered greater landed-cost predictability to shippers, though it remained uncertain whether its impact would materially boost U.S. import demand. Carriers used blank sailings to balance utilization while watching for any sign of increased demand; rates had already started increasing on both coasts by late December: West Coast rates rose 9% to $2145 while East Coast rates had seen their rates jump 15% after hikes implemented mid December.
North America and Europe Trade Facing Port Congestion
Peak season conditions persisted through December on North American to Europe routes, with United States Gulf Coast ports offering tightest capacity due to strong export volumes and limited vessel options. By contrast, United States East Coast gateways provided better space availability due to more frequent service options and larger vessel deployment. Trans-Atlantic eastbound schedule reliability continued its upward trajectory and was among the strongest globally.
Labor disruptions and operational backlogs at key European hubs such as Antwerp and Rotterdam continued to hamper vessel flow and cause localized congestion, leading to slow vessel movement and reduced effectiveness on Asia-Europe trades, with vessels spending longer at berth or waiting in anchorage; this reduced capacity helped support healthy utilization rates even amid soft overall demand. Blank sailings may become common during December/January due to holiday-season demands resulting in temporary space constraints on specific sailing weeks.
Market Outlook and Capacity Dynamics
Analysts projected carriers would experience heavy losses as soon as the first quarter of 2026, due to vessel capacity outstripping volumes on key trade lanes. In 2025, U.S. ports handled record 2.39 million TEUs in July but volumes then plummeted significantly for October through December. Retailers ordered in smaller waves creating short notice tenders and regional demand spikes instead of sustained volume growth.
As Chinese New Year was approaching on January 29, 2026, capacity was expected to tighten significantly during its lead-up. Carriers extended current rates through December 14 and deferred general rate increases and peak season surcharges until December 15. With multiple void sailings scheduled during December, markets could quickly tighten quickly should tariff reductions lead to an unexpected volume surge; reduced capacity combined with sudden demand increases could quickly create space constraints and upward pressure on rates.