On January 12th 2026, after US-led airstrikes targeted Houthi positions in Yemen, commercial shipping through Bab al-Mandab Strait experienced a dramatic decrease. By 1230 GMT only 20 ships had entered, as opposed to an average of 38 over the previous four days.
Bimco, representing 62% of global tonnage, advised members - representing 62% of total tonnage - to suspend Red Sea transits for up to 72 hours due to risks posed by Houthi retaliation, while Intertanko advised 24-hour suspension of tanker voyages in Red Sea waters. Danish tanker operator Torm also announced suspension of all southern Red Sea voyages until further notice, prompting several tankers to alter course and reverse.
Even with this slowdown, more than 290 commercial ships - including 125 tankers transporting oil, chemicals, LNG and LPG - were still transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal as of 1700 GMT.
US and UK Expand Military Response Plans
Airstrikes launched by the United States and United Kingdom marked an significant escalation by those countries against Houthi rebels who have conducted 27 attacks against commercial ships since tensions first flared up. President Joe Biden warned that further action may be taken should attacks continue, while Houthi leaders have pledged punishment and retaliation.
UK Armed Forces Minister James Heappey strongly supported these strikes, declaring that efforts to disrupt commercial shipping cannot hold back humanity. Their actions followed over 100 Houthi strikes against vessels since the crisis started, sinking two and damaging numerous others while killing four seafarers.
British security firm Ambrey recently issued a warning that Houthi threats could extend well beyond local areas, and that attacks against merchant shipping may continue and broaden for some time despite reduced capabilities.
As Shipping Industry Suspends Operations Amid Uncertainty
Shipbroker BRS anticipates owners will wait 72 hours before making any decisions regarding Cape of Good Hope reroutings. Research head Andrew Wilson noted the market remains in wait-and-see mode with no mass tanker diversions expected unless further escalation takes place.
Red Sea transits had already halved by late December 2025, having an enormously negative effect on container shipping with higher freight rates and decreased fuel needs on longer routes. War risk premiums for Gulf of Aden tankers had skyrocketed six-tenfold since October.
Large Range tankers that choose Africa routes may earn up to a $1 million premium over taking Suez canal routes, partially offset by higher canal fees. Most Persian Gulf-Europe tankers still maintain Suez options but typically only utilize Cape diversions occasionally.
Broader Market Uncertainty Remains the Same
Dimerco's January 2026 report highlights Red Sea uncertainties as one of the primary threats for global ocean freight, noting that early returns could saturate markets with excess capacity amid weak demand. Premier Alliance plans continued South African routings.
China is facing port congestion and pre-Chinese New Year surges ahead of Chinese New Year, with North China Intra-Asia rates increasing due to delays at Singapore, Port Klang, and Kaohsiung; East and South China can expect surcharges and restocking pressures in anticipation of peak surcharges and surcharges respectively.
Southeast Asia continues to face congestion issues, most notably 96-hour delays at Port Klang and Philippine routes to major markets tighten seasonally. Overall volumes remain muted resulting in greater sensitivity towards routing shifts and changes.
Historical Perspective and Ongoing Concerns (HiSTORIC/ONGOING)
Around this period, the crisis celebrated its first anniversary, with UN Security Council representatives calling for Houthi release of car carrier Galaxy Leader and its 25 crewmembers, which had been captured November 19th 2023 by Houthis forces. Furthermore, they emphasized the enforcement of Yemen arms embargo for maritime security purposes.
Separate US sanctions targeted 13 entities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for supporting attacks and involvement with Houthi capabilities, according to US claims of Iranian involvement. US Navy assets continue intercepting drones and missiles to safeguard vessels.