Geopolitical dynamics had a dramatic impact on global maritime trade in December 2025, as US tariff policies and Red Sea security trials intersected with rising freight rates and operational bottlenecks to disrupt global maritime commerce.
Maersk and CMA CGM Trial Suez Canal Transits
Maersk Sebarok and CMA CGM Jacques Saade successfully transited the Suez Canal in late December, marking one of several significant trials against ongoing Red Sea tensions. This development could signal stepwise network resumptions by major alliances between January and February 2026; security risks remain elevated with Yemens PLC warning of an impending tipping point within internal stability, while UKMTO reported pirate sightings near Somalia.
These transits come as the Red Sea crisis has become a permanent security exception by year's end, neither completely safe nor abandoned. Operators continue to monitor for wider resumption; however, operational clumping and origin delays continue to pose primary bottlenecks to cargo flows for Q1 cargo flows.
US and China Reach Agreement on Port Charges Arrangement
After US trade policies such as its tariff package announced April 2 and port charges levied against Chinese-owned vessels beginning October 14, which have taken a toll, and subsequent reciprocal port charge reductions and tariff reductions taking place, on October 30 in Busan a trade truce was agreed upon for one year until October-November 2026; though uncertainty persists.
Chinas response included tightened regulatory scrutiny and demands to include COSCO Shipping in deals, in combination with Panama port sale barriers due to capacity risks. These measures had led to cargo volume contractions, service cancellations and route diversions between China and the US earlier in 2019.
Container Rates Soar Amid Delays in Operations
Global shipping rates ended 2025 on an upswing, with the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) rising 1.4% week-on-week as of December 25. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) also experienced an impressive 6.6% gain to 1,656.32, as Asia-Mediterranean spot rates outpaced Transpacific lanes by increasing 5.5% over this timeframe.
Operational disruptions continued, with departure delays averaging 12.5 days leading to vessel bunching and yard densities reaching 85% at North Europe hubs. The Maritime Mood Index scored 6.8/10 reflecting positive momentum but an increased security and disruption risk profile.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Are Leading Reliability Recovery Initiative
Sea-Intelligence's November 2025 data showed global schedule reliability to be at 64.1%, with Maersk attaining 78.1 per cent adherence and Hapag-Lloyd 77.1 per cent; Maersk's Gemini Cooperation alliance excelled by reaching nearly 90% reliability, surpassing other operators and alliances.
This rebound follows an intense year where shipping became a geopolitical tool and trade policies instead of efficiency or sustainability became the focus.
Broader Market Pressures
US marine fuel imports dropped 11% year-on-year to 26.71 million metric tonnes, signalling further decreases going forward. Ocean rates saw increases into year end with more General Rate Increases (GRIs), carriers testing Red Sea routes as well as LNY pickups for Asia-Europe pickups.
These events demonstrate how geopolitics has continued to weaponize maritime trade, creating security risks, policy shocks and logistical strains that pose a challenging outlook for 2026.