Suez Canal Reopens as Container Freight Rates Steadily Rise Due to Geopolitical Shifts

Container shipping seemed to enter December in fairly rude health, having started the month with Suez Canal transits being restarted under the leadership of Maersk and CMA CGM, perhaps bringing much-needed stability to the over-heated Asia-Europe lanes, although some short-term volatility might remain. Drewry said its World Container Index rose on December 11 by another 2% to $1957 per 40ft container despite US import volumes continuing to show decline and the completed Houthi attacks in Israel-Jordan suspected by some of relieving some rate pressure; on top of that Black Sea risks and the EU ETS surcharges added even more confusion.

The global container shipping sector marked early December 2025 with pivotal developments in routing, rates, and regulatory pressures, as carriers cautiously resume Suez Canal operations amid stabilizing freight markets.

Maersk and CMA CGM Restart Suez Canal Transits with Maersk as Leader

Maersk confirmed plans to restore Asia-Europe routing via the Suez Canal from early December, under a strategic partnership with the Suez Canal Authority. This move follows nearly a year of large-scale diversions around the Cape of Good Hope due to prior disruptions.CMA CGM, operator of some of the world's largest megamax vessels, has already resumed select Suez transits, sending CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin and CMA CGM Osiris through the canal earlier this year. Hapag-Lloyd remains cautious, continuing to monitor the security and operational environment without fully resuming.The return to Suez could shave 10-14 days off Asia-Europe voyages, cutting fuel costs and improving schedule reliability. However, industry analysts anticipate vessel bunching at Mediterranean and Northern Europe gateways, alongside port congestion risks on Asia-Med and Asia-North Europe corridors. Carriers may adjust service frequencies or void sailings to rebalance schedules, leading to short-term rate volatility.

World Container Index Rises 2 Forwarders should book early bookings for December-January due to vessel and equipment repositioning needs, which could result in lower rates once rotations stabilize. Proactive planning is essential.US Import Volumes on Track for Multi-Year Lows

December US imports are projected to be the lowest since June 2023, with the National Retail Federation forecasting 25.2 million TEUs for 2025, down 1.4Demand and capacity imbalances on US container trades suggest carriers' rate increase efforts may falter, as market dynamics fail to support prolonged hikes.

Houthi Attacks Cease, Signalling Possible Freight Rate Decline

Houthi militia have reportedly ceased attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea, a development with seismic implications for global ocean freight. The end of disruptions could accelerate normalization of Suez routings and ease rate pressures built up over prior months.

Black Sea Risks and EU ETS Increase Cost Pressures

Rising war-risk premiums in the Black Sea are prompting carriers to limit deployments due to crew safety concerns, increasing voyage costs and lead times. Some operators divert via the Danube corridor, risking congestion.ONE updated its EU ETS surcharge, contributing to structurally higher costs for EU-bound trades into 2026. Shippers may shift to rail, short-sea, or non-EU transshipment to mitigate carbon-pricing exposure.Overall, December 2025 offers a cautiously optimistic outlook: Asia-Europe stabilization via Suez, persistent Black Sea and energy market risks, and elevated EU compliance costs shaping the container shipping landscape.