Transpacific Rates Hold Firm as Carriers Prepare for January Surge
Container carriers have begun 2026 with an unexpectedly steady rate environment on transpacific routes, defying seasonal softness. Even as import demand from Asia declines, carriers have managed capacity additions carefully and swiftly responded to market shifts - this year capacity to the U.S. West Coast may increase close to 13% year-on-year - signaling their commitment for an impressive start into 2026.
China-US West Coast routes are trading near $1,700 per FEU while East Coast rates hover around $2,600 per FEU. Mid-December price increases of $600-$800 toward the East Coast have held firm as carriers execute their late year pricing push. Services to both coasts show an upward capacity trend; carriers maintaining headline rate levels despite holiday-driven volume lull that normally reduces shipping urgency; two-tier market behavior persists with general rate increases steadily increasing while sailing selection may result in pockets of reduced pricing for flexible shippers who shippers opting in.
Maersk Completes First Suez Transit in Two Years; Red Sea Corridor Remains Uncertain
Maersk recently took an important step toward normalizing Red Sea operations by sending its 7,250 TEU MAERSK SEBAROK through the Suez Canal on Middle East-US East Coast service, marking its first transit in over two years due to security disruptions which forced widespread rerouting via Cape of Good Hope. Maersk stressed it has not committed to switching back entirely; rather it will adopt a stepwise approach toward gradually resume navigation services on east-west services if security thresholds hold steady.
Owing to Egypt's strong financial incentives to restore traffic, carriers are remaining cautious about Red Sea stability. Although some lines might resume normal transits through Suez Canal Authority's transit services, security remains fragile on the ground and major carriers other than CMA CGM and Maersk have yet to return; industry observers do not anticipate a full return until at least three months have passed, reflecting concerns that political optimism might not translate into lasting operational safety.
Asia-Europe Bookings Increase Rapidly; Service Expansion Announced
Bookings of cargo shipping between Asia and Europe increased dramatically during December, prompting ocean carriers to offer more capacity on routes to North Europe and the Mediterranean. MSC announced its Canada Express route will include additional calls at Spain and Portugal ports from December 2025 - reflecting carrier confidence that demand patterns for its services would remain steady heading into 2026.
Booking surges are happening as carriers prepare rate hikes and service revamps on Asia-Latin America trade routes, where capacity from Asia to both East and West coasts of South America has seen sharp increases throughout 2025. By making strategic adjustments like these on Asia-Latin America trade routes, carriers are well positioned to take advantage of changing sourcing patterns as tariff-driven import flows shift significantly.
Inland Networks Face Pressure from Railcar Shortages and Driver Shortages
While ocean capacity remains stable, inland networks across North America are experiencing tightening fundamentals. Railcar shortages and driver availability constraints continue to strain regional drayage networks, with stricter enforcement of English Language Proficiency requirements and new Commercial Driver's License standards having more of an effect in western regions than others.
Eastern Canada continues to face formidable obstacles, with low water levels on the St. Lawrence River remaining below seasonal averages and expected to remain so for at least several more weeks. Labor disruptions at select terminals and limited railcar availability limiting cargo movement; potentially leading to fluctuating discharge volumes and uneven inland cargo flows. Reefer trucking capacity from US East Coast remains tight due to seasonal demand pressures as citrus volumes increase further; container dwell times at Newark remain moderate with mild congestion expected - potentially slowing Canada-bound rail cargo movement.
Peak Season Final Stretch; Customs and Tariff Developments
Supply chains are in their final push toward Christmas as Christmas approaches, with cut-off dates becoming ever more crucial. Recently, however, both countries agreed on postponing port fees that had originally been scheduled to go into effect on October 14, in the USTR Section 301 investigation by one year - this means carriers no longer implement previously announced changes to US-flagged services; rather they will resume regular rotations including calls at Ningbo.
Less-than-Container Load shipping into North America remains steady as high airfreight rates and tariff pressures drive importers towards ocean freight for smaller shipments. E-commerce growth, diversified sourcing from Asia and Latin America as well as frequent, smaller replenishments drives demand. Peak demand should reach its peak by December's end; then returns should surge throughout January with last mile returns continuing under pressure until they normalize later that month.