Suez Canal traffic continues to lag significantly behind pre-crisis levels into the new year, with transits in the first week of 2026 recorded at 60% below the corresponding period in 2023, according to analysis from BIMCO.
Persistent Low Traffic 100 Days Post-Last Houthi Attack
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Niels Rasmussen, highlighted that 100 days have passed since the Minervagracht became the last vessel targeted by Houthi forces on 29 September 2025. Despite the group declaring an end to attacks on ships 43 days later, canal volumes have not rebounded substantially.
During 2025, deadweight tonne (DWT) transits through the Suez Canal were 57-64% lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter alone, bulkers saw a 55% drop, container ships 86%, crude tankers 32%, and product tankers 19% compared to the prior year.
This downturn began in earnest in January 2024, following 99 Houthi attacks or hijackings since November 2023, as tracked by Lloyds List. Nearly all container ships have shunned the route since then.
Signs of Recovery from Major Carriers
Encouraging developments include CMA CGM announcing the resumption of its MEDEX and INDAMEX services through the Suez Canal in January 2026. Additionally, the mega container vessel CMA CGM Jacques Saade, one of the worlds largest at 396m, transited the canal for the first time in nearly two years.
Maersk has also dipped a toe back in the water. The 6,645 TEU Maersk Sebarok transited on 19 December 2025 and again on 23 December, marking the first Maersk vessels through since early 2024. The company waived its Red Sea disruption fee post-transit and stated it is considering a stepwise resumption assuming security thresholds hold.
Maersk emphasized prioritizing crew, ship, and cargo safety while eyeing gradual normalization of the East-West corridor via Suez and the Red Sea.
Supporting Factors and Cautious Outlook
The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has actively courted a return, introducing flexible pricing such as a 15% discount for container ships over 130,000t and holding talks with carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM. Admiral Rabiee projected gradual traffic improvements in 2026, with normalization expected by the second half.
Red Sea war risk premiums have eased to 0.2% of hull values in early December 2025, the lowest since November 2023 and down from 0.5% pre-ceasefire, per SP Global. This could incentivize more operators to revert from the Cape of Good Hope.
Market participants anticipate stronger bunker demand at Suez if security holds, potentially easing spot prices at Cape ports. However, caution persists given past Houthi pauses that did not lead to sustained peace. BIMCOs Rasmussen noted a normalization seems more likely now than in the past two years, but the pace remains uncertain. A full return could cut container ship demand by 10% and others by 2-3% due to shorter voyages reducing operational needs.
Broader Industry Implications
The October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire prompted the Houthi pause announced on 11 November, though violations have occurred. Carriers like Hapag-Lloyd are monitoring closely before committing.
Third quarter 2025 saw just 3,277 vessels through Suez versus 6,253 in Q3 2022, per SCA data, underscoring the prolonged impact of diversions that inflated bunker use and voyage times.
As shipping firms weigh costs against risks, the Suez remains pivotal for global trade efficiency. Stakeholders await whether early 2026 moves herald a true rebound or merely a tentative step.