2026 saw no clear resolution to the Red Sea crisis, with Houthi rebels issuing new threats and freight rates increasing due to ongoing uncertainties. Shipowners and carriers continued avoiding Cape of Good Hope routes thereby exacerbating weather-related risks further and leading to new regulatory measures being adopted by various governments around the globe.
New Mandatory Reporting System for Lost Containers
From January 1, 2026, SOLAS Chapter V amendments require immediate notification of containers lost at sea or seen floating adrift. This rule, established through IMO Resolution MSC.550(108), applies to vessels carrying containers as well as those who spot drift risks in order to improve navigational safety and marine environmental protection.
The measure comes as a response to increased container losses; according to the World Shipping Council, 576 containers were reported lost in 2024 alone, rising alongside an 181% surge in Cape of Good Hope transits due to Red Sea avoidance and harsher conditions for ships transiting Cape of Good Hope. South Africa's Maritime Safety Authority noted almost 200 lost containers at Cape of Good Hope alone each year - 35% of all annual losses; incidents decreased steadily between 2025-2027.
Masters must now promptly report losses or sightings to flag states, coastal authorities, and other ships to reduce collision hazards in busy detour routes.
Houthi Warns of Potential Attack Resumption
Yemen's Houthi rebels have repeatedly threatened to resume Red Sea attacks against Israeli vessels and potentially broaden targets, despite ceasefire discussions between the US and Hamas truce talks, reports indicate Houthis have banned US vessels from the Red Sea as reprisal for Yemen strikes and are vowing to continue operations except against non-Israeli ships under certain conditions.
Security incidents persist, including a Houthi attack forcing the crew to abandon the bulker Magic Seas off Yemen, with two seafarers missing and two wounded in a separate incident. These events underscore ongoing perils for non-diverting traffic.
US forces reported defeating Houthi drone and missile attacks against merchant ships and warships in the Gulf of Aden while airstrikes targeted rebel bases in Yemen. Tensions remain high; OFAC claims Houthis ensure safe passage for Russian and Chinese vessels.
Freight Rates Explode Amid Diversions and Peak Season
Freight rates increased sharply as 2026 began, due to Red Sea risks, supply chain volatility, and early Lunar New Year cargo rushes. Trans-Pacific and Asia-US lanes saw increases due to carrier general rate increases as carriers frontloaded ahead of China factory shutdowns.
CMA CGM, which transited partially the Red Sea, now favors routing most services around Cape Horn for most services; other carriers like Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express reaped higher rates due to diversions; tankers and bulkers have avoided the region at rising rates according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data.
Asia-Europe operators expanded capacity without incurring blank sailings, yet any potential Suez return poses disruption threats by flooding capacity and collapsing spot rates. Analysts warn of extended high costs should attacks persist.
Carrier Strategies and Market Outlooks
Maersk Group revised its outlook, citing tariff impacts and Red Sea effects on volumes; China's top carrier forecast record profits due to sustained high rates. French liner CMA CGM introduced peak surcharges for US-bound boxes.
Industry analysts note shippers gained pricing power in 2025 due to tariffs and overcapacity. But uncertainty surrounding Red Sea trade routes tests resilience; Allianz Commercial warns about war risks as well as seasonal weather, leading to detour routes becoming a source of danger.
Houthi violations against shipping have caused carriers to weigh cautious Suez returns against rate stability as part of rate-stabilization strategies. With more than a year gone since this crisis first surfaced, global trade routes and logistics planning continue to evolve and shift significantly.