Merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has experienced an unprecedented period of relative peace, with more than one month passing since any Houthi attack on commercial vessels - marking an extended cessation in hostilities since Iran-backed group began targeting ships to support Palestinians during Israel-Hamas clashes in late 2023.
Last Confirmed Attack occurred on December 10, 2024.
On December 10, 2024, three merchant ships escorted by US Navy destroyers were attacked in the Gulf of Aden by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and an anti-ship cruise missile; successfully intercepting both was successful for their defense; no damage or injuries resulted from this engagement.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) data confirms a dramatic decrease in activity, as evidenced by just one warning issued in December 2024 compared to 24 incidents occurring each in December 2023 and January 2024 plus 15 in June 2024 - suggesting significant de-escalation in Houthi attacks against maritime traffic.
Analyst Insights on Reduced Houthi Activity
Daniel Muller, Intelligence Analyst for Middle East at Ambrey, observed a reported Houthi operation against merchant shipping on December 26th 2024 but confirmed attacks have since subsided due to lack of suitable targets - vessels linked with Israel or its allies- that met Houthi criteria. To assist operators assess risks and select safer Cape of Good Hope routes. Ambrey offers Vessel Affiliation Checks (AVAC).
US and UK airstrikes have significantly hampered Houthi capabilities, including unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). Naval presence in the southern Red Sea as well as fuel resupply from Israeli strikes has hindered Houthi USV usage; instead they have focused on attacks against Israel directly thereby providing some temporary relief for shipping vessels despite Ambrey assessing that Houthi ability to target vessels has diminished considerably but remains present albeit diminished.
Potential Impact of Gaza Ceasefire Developments
Reports indicate Israel and Hamas may be on the cusp of reaching a ceasefire agreement, yet experts warn this won't immediately end threats to shipping. Ambrey predicts Houthis will link cessation of attacks with Israeli withdrawal from Gaza - something unlikely to occur quickly - which in turn would require gradual return of vessels through Bab el-Mandeb Strait with ongoing AVAC advisories to reduce risks.
Houthi threats of expanding attacks into the Indian Ocean and Eastern Mediterranean - evidenced by their April 2024 strike against MSC Orion west of the Indian Ocean - led to route diversions; more recently however, focus has returned to areas near Yemens exclusive economic zone (EEZ), where most damaging incidents took place.
Maersk resumes Red Sea Transit After Two Years
Danish carrier Maersk took an optimistic step in its Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait voyage, marking nearly two years of inactivity on this route, which remains critical for global container trade despite ongoing Houthi threats that had severely disrupted flows worth an estimated annual value of $1 trillion prior to conflict.
Ongoing Incidents and Broader Risks
While merchant attacks have subsided, associated maritime security concerns still exist. On December 15, 2025, a merchant vessel successfully warded off an attack off Yemen coast; this incident highlighted persistent transit risks. On November 11 2025, Houthis announced they were suspending maritime attacks as well as lifting their blockade of Israeli ports, although threats still remain.
Skuld has recently issued updated advisories on Red Sea threats, emphasizing vigilance. UKMTO and other bodies encourage reporting suspicious activity involving potential pirate action groups in nearby Indian Ocean regions. Suez Canal transits have continued their downward trend compared to pre-crisis levels as carriers consider riskier Cape routes over shorter Suez transits.
Military pressures, target scarcity and geopolitical shifts offer shipping a temporary reprieve; however, to achieve full normalization it will depend on resolving underlying conflicts. Operators should observe enhanced security protocols while using intelligence data for informed routing decisions.