Container shipping markets ended their final full week of 2025 on a firmer footing, with spot rates showing gains across major indices and carriers showing disciplined capacity management practices. Blank sailings tightened space on Trans-Pacific lanes while tentative Suez Canal transits could signal potential routing shifts into 2026 - these developments occurring against a backdrop of holiday-reduced volumes and pre-Lunar New Year positioning.
Spot Rates Strengthen on Capacity Discipline
Drewrys World Container Index (WCI) reached $2,213/FEU as of December 25 - an increase of 1.4% week-on-week as seen over four consecutive weeks - marking four straight gains. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) saw gains of 6.6% to 1,656.32, while China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose 2% as of December 26 (for both routes combined); Mediterranean routes saw notable upswing while Trans-Pacific rates stabilized following prior rebound periods.
Carriers utilized blank sailings and network adjustments to support pricing on trans-Pacific services. This approach offset mixed demand signals, helping prevent further rate erosion as fourth quarter cargo flows remained uneven. Importers faced an increase in cancellation clusters across West Coast routings that necessitated confirmed sailings monitoring in addition to blank sailing monitoring.
Trans-Pacific Lanes Hold Firm during Holiday Pause
China to US West Coast (CEA-USWC) spot rates held steady between $1,800-$2,000 per FEU while East Coast rates (CEA-USEC) lingered at around $2,700-$2,800 until Christmas week, although Holiday shutdowns had an adverse impact on bookings while carriers prioritized stability over volume stimulation in an almost zero demand environment.
Capacity controls rather than demand surges provided a firm foundation for resilience on East Coast routings compared with West Coast, and sentiment shifted toward anticipated General Rate Increases of around $1,000 expected in January. Maersk noted steady ocean capacity on key trades but noted increasing rail shortages and driver constraints into December, further underscoring capacity control constraints as key determinants.
Suez Canal Experiences Major Vessel Transits
Maersk Sebarok and CMA CGM Jacques Saade successfully traversed the Suez Canal this week - marking one of several major trials this month - marking carriers testing safety protocols amid Red Sea tensions, potentially ending full Cape of Good Hope diversions. A Suez return could cut 10-14 days off Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes.
Trials support stepwise realignments to resume full network operation for January-February 2026, as part of stepwise network realignments planned. Operators should consider emerging Suez-Express service options for faster transits; container ship volumes were near 2025 lows earlier in December highlighting their importance.
Asia-Europe Bookings Steadfast; Ports Stable
Cargo bookings for Asia-Europe ocean trade surged sharply in December, pushing carrier capacity levels to new highs on routes serving North Europe and the Mediterranean. This volume increase contrasted sharply with holiday lulls across Trans-Pacific lanes, emphasizing their individual dynamics.
US and Canadian port operations remained consistent, without widespread congestion. Increased efficiencies at gateways facilitated predictable flows; however, terminal variance persisted. Maersk stressed early notifications for reefer and urgent shipments in order to mitigate inland bottlenecks.
Year-End Outlook and Risks
Markets enter 2026 with execution reliability as their primary concern over headline rates. Capacity discipline has stabilized pricing, yet importers must navigate fixed-window deliveries amid blank sailings and potential GRIs. Suez trials offer hope of efficiency gains while stable ports help peak season wrap-up; monitoring weekly adjustments through Lunar New Year is paramount to remaining profitable.