Transpacific spot rates experience an unexpected surge during Lunar New Year demand.
Container shipping rates from Asia to United States trade routes saw a sudden spot rate surge last week as demand surged ahead of Lunar New Year cargo demand. According to Freightos data cited by industry analysts, ocean rates from Asia to the US West Coast grew approximately 22% week on week, likely driven by factory closures in China and other East Asian export hubs as volume moved prior to factory shutdowns in these regions.
Freightos Baltic Index for early January shows that Lunar New Year related bookings have driven rates on all main eastbound transpacific corridors higher, as carriers test higher levels on short term contracts as shippers scramble for space. Absolute rate levels remain well below their previous pandemic era peaks; however, recent weeks represent the first meaningful test of carrier pricing power during 2026 contract season.
Market sources attribute the current surge to seasonal factors rather than any fundamental shifts. According to forwarders, carriers are prioritizing high yielding cargo and premium services that carry higher margins, prompting certain shippers to advance sailings or switch routes via East and Gulf coasts in order to secure capacity at acceptable price points.
Blank sailings and front loading tighten near term capacity.
Capacity management strategies adopted by major container lines have compounded the effects of pre holiday demand surge. Industry briefings over the last week indicate that carriers have taken to frontloading sailings before Lunar New Year and then using aggressive blank sailings, particularly between China and North America loops, leading to congestion at key Asian export gateways as well as pockets of equipment imbalance.
Analysts note that some services have seen clusters of heavily booked departures followed by cancelled voyages, effectively compressing cargo flows into fewer sailings and providing carriers with leverage to support spot rate increases. For smaller shippers and late bookers this means tighter space conditions, higher premiums for last minute bookings, and growing risks of cargo rolled cargo on certain departures.
Although short term bottlenecks exist, overall vessel capacity remains sufficient to meet demand. Freight market commentators note that an increase in new tonnage and chartered ships on the transpacific has increased available slots; meaning once holiday push activity dissipates space will likely open quickly undermining efforts to maintain elevated prices into late January.
Rate increases may face resistance due to weak demand.
Multiple market reports released during the first full trading week of January highlight weak fundamentals on China-US container trade. Freight Right Logistics reports that general rate increases filed early January for transpacific shipping quickly evaporated as shippers balked at higher levels and carriers reduced offers in order to fill vessels adequately.
Analysis by Global Trade Analytics indicates that even during China's customary mini peak before Lunar New Year, export volumes were constrained due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff related concerns - several large importers having reduced purchase orders as a result. As a result, carriers have limited their pricing power and have accepted suboptimal spot rates rather than sailing with idle capacity; recent spikes may therefore be fragile and susceptible to correction once seasonal rush has subsided.
Forward looking commentary suggests that attempts at large general rate increases before the holiday cutoff will meet stiff resistance unless demand strengthens materially. Shippers with flexible cargo scheduling may benefit from waiting out the peak season while those relying on time sensitive goods must act quickly to make bookings in spite of higher spot market prices.
US container import forecast remains subdued through spring.
Underscoring volatile spot rates, the National Retail Federation and its consulting partners project that United States container import volumes will remain subdued until early spring at least. They project that inbound volumes will stay below year earlier levels at major US gateways as retailers clear existing inventories while using caution when placing new orders for 2026 first half production runs.
This more muted demand trajectory is shaping carrier network decisions and rate strategies on main eastbound trades. Since retailers do not expect an immediate rebound of replenishment cycles seen during previous upswings, ocean carriers face a delicate balance between short term revenue maximization during seasonal peaks while maintaining service reliability in an otherwise weak market structure.
Industry analysts indicate that uncertainties regarding global manufacturing activity, potential shifts away from China for sourcing purposes and the ongoing normalization of supply chains after disruptions in alternative routing are all complicating planning for both shippers and carriers. Forecast scenarios for 2026 reveal that any sustained recovery in box demand depends on macroeconomic conditions as well as trade policy developments in the coming months.
Shippers and carriers facing implications by early 2026
Beneficial cargo owners and freight forwarders were reminded this past week to actively manage booking windows and routing strategies during seasonal demand spikes - even in an overall soft market - to stay profitable. Advisories from major logistics providers recommend securing space several weeks ahead of factory closures, diversifying port options whenever feasible, and closely monitoring carrier blank sailing programs on core lanes from Asia.
On the carrier side, current market conditions present carriers with the challenge of maintaining rate discipline amid significant new capacity deliveries. Tactical blank sailings, seasonal demand fluctuations and retailer import planning strategies will determine revenue performance over the first months of 2026; market participants anticipate spot rates on transpacific carriers will gradually ease off from early January highs once Lunar New Year season subsides, though prices might remain somewhat firmer than lows seen in late 2025.
Each side of the market is using this period as an early test of their negotiating positions ahead of the main 2026 contract season. How long the current rate spike can continue and how sharply prices correct will determine shippers contracting strategies and carriers deployment plans in a landscape still marked by abundant capacity and uneven demand.